While the interest-rate-cut can continues to be kicked further down the road, emerging market currencies continue to bear the brunt of a robust dollar.
- MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index slips
- US bond yields on the rise
- All eyes on the upcoming earning season
- Dollar remains near five-month highs
DOLLAR REIGNS KING
Emerging market currencies across several key economies have found themselves under extreme pressure since the beginning of the year. The dollar’s strength – driven by geopolitical tensions, expectations of delayed rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and increased demand for the greenback – has contributed to the weakening of emerging-market currencies as traders flee to safe-haven assets, like the dollar. The situation has prompted concerns among economists and central banks alike.
Asian central banks have suggested various measures to support their currencies, including currency intervention and policy adjustments. The Indian rupee hit a record low, and the South Korean won dropped to a 17-month low, prompting verbal intervention by authorities. Malaysia’s central bank has indicated its willingness to stabilise the ringgit, which is close to a 26-year low. The Indonesian rupiah slipped 2% to its lowest point in four years, prompting intervention from the Indonesian central bank to stabilise it, in the form of a rate increase, with expectations mounting ahead of Indonesia’s upcoming monetary policy meeting. However, the effectiveness of such a measure remains uncertain, especially given the rupiah’s vulnerability, due to its reliance on foreign financing, and in the face of sustained dollar strength and broader market volatility.
In addition to geopolitical tensions, concerns about the Fed’s interest rate trajectory have added to the uncertainty. Stronger-than-expected US economic data has fuelled speculation that the Fed may delay rate cuts, further bolstering the dollar and exacerbating the challenges for emerging market currencies. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index dropped to its lowest level since December, reflecting the challenges faced by emerging market currencies in the current environment.
The impact of these currency fluctuations extends beyond individual economies, affecting broader market sentiment and investor behaviour. Asian stocks, for example, have experienced losses, with emerging market equities sliding on the back of the dollar’s strength.
Looking ahead, the outlook for emerging market currencies remains uncertain, with much depending on the trajectory of US interest rates and geopolitical developments. While some analysts predict a rebound in emerging market currencies following potential Fed rate cuts, volatility is expected to persist in the near term as central banks navigate the challenges posed by a strong dollar, sticky inflation and geopolitical tensions.
MARKET RECAP
Amidst a flurry of economic data and central bank commentary, global markets have found themselves on a rollercoaster ride, navigating an uncertain and volatile landscape.
Bonds
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note surged past the 4.6% threshold, driven by robust economic indicators that favour a hawkish stance from the Fed.
This trend was mirrored in the United Kingdom (UK), where the 10-year government bond yield stabilised around 4.3%, buoyed by hotter-than-expected inflation data and hawkish remarks from US Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.
Meanwhile, South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield experienced a slight easing, albeit still elevated, amidst global yield surges.
Equities
US stocks are poised to rebound after a four-day losing streak, with futures pointing to gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Chip stocks like Nvidia and Micron Technology are leading the charge, while other sectors brace for the upcoming earnings season.
In Europe, both the Frankfurt’s DAX 40 index and the UK’s FTSE 100 have seen modest gains, driven by insights from central bank officials and positive company news. Anticipation in the tech sector is high ahead of Netflix’s earnings report, which signals the start of the Big Tech reporting season in the US.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 and the broader Topix Index reversed earlier losses to close higher, tracking a broad rebound in the wider Asia Pacific region. Investors are eagerly awaiting Friday’s Japanese inflation figures for further insights.
In South Africa, the JSE All Share index remains relatively unchanged, with a mixed bag of quarterly company reports and ongoing concerns over geopolitical tensions and higher US interest rates.
Commodities
Brent Crude futures are on a four-day decline, dropping below $87/barrel, as geopolitical tensions ease after Israel refrained from an immediate counterattack on Iran and US oil inventories surged. Fading prospects of US interest rate cuts and weaker economic data from China have further dampened the demand outlook.
On the precious metals front, gold prices are inching upwards as safe-haven demand is being bolstered by geopolitical uncertainties and hawkish pronouncements from Fed officials, who are favouring extended restrictive interest rates.
Currencies
The US Dollar Index remains strong, hovering near over-five-month highs, as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, indicated a cautious approach to interest rate cuts. Investors are recalibrating expectations, and now expect only about 40 basis points in total easing from the Fed this year.
The euro and the British pound are feeling the pressure, trading near multi-month lows against the dollar. Diverging monetary policy scenarios for the European Central Bank and the Fed, along with stronger-than-expected UK inflation data, are influencing investor sentiment.
The South African rand has also not been immune to emerging-market headwinds. Since the beginning of the year, it has traded about 4% weaker against the dollar, and during the early hours of this morning, it fell to around R19.38/$, before recovering to the R19.20/$, following reports of new developments in the Middle East, that saw all safe-haven assets including the dollar rally. In addition, uncertainties surrounding South Africa’s and the US inflation outlook, as well as domestic growth prospects, also kept the rand on the back foot.
Key Indicators:
USD/ZAR: 19.25
EUR/ZAR: 20.46
GBP/ZAR: 23.90
GOLD: $2,383.72
BRENT CRUDE: $89.00
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters News, Refinitiv and Trading Economics.
Written by: Citadel Global Director, Bianca Botes.